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Main Post: For the Unit 6 Discussion Board, you will compose a reflective essay to address the following
questions:
Scenario: You are a business owner faced with an important decision that could potentially be very lucrative.
Keep in mind the “Six Steps in Decision Making” as you set up your decision analysis. See the DB Starter video in
the Unit 3 LiveBinder.
1. What is the problem and objective of this decision?
2. Identify at least 3 alternatives and 3 states of nature.
3. Create a decision table in Excel. Example tables can be found in Unit 3 Live Binders.
4. Identify the potential payoff/losses for each alternative and state of nature and include in your
decision table.
5. Choose two decision strategies and determine the best alternative:
(Clearly state the best alternative for each strategy.)
• Optimistic
• Pessimistic
• Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz)
6. Why did you choose the two strategies? What are the results of the best alternative? What is your final
decision?
After you have contemplated the questions above, draft your reflective essay. Every piece of writing should
have an introduction, body, and conclusion. A good way to plan this particular reflective essay is to write an
introduction to the essay. Next, write at least three body paragraphs and address each of the points listed
above. End your essay with a conclusion paragraph tying all of your ideas together. The essay should be at
least five paragraphs in length.
******************************************************************************************
1. I am the business owner for my personal juice/smoothie business, “The New Green!” I have smoothie carts
in various locations around town. Business has been going very well and I am considering expanding my
business to our neighboring town.
2. Three alternatives would be:
1. Expand fully to neighboring town with 3 new smoothie carts
2. Pilot the expansion with just 1 new smoothie cart
3. Stay status quo – do not expand (Make the customers come to me!)
Three states of nature would be:
1. Serious demand for good nutrition
2. Moderate demand for good nutrition
3. Nobody cares about good nutrition
3 & 4. On a typical “awesome” day, I sell about $250 in smoothies per cart and it costs about $100 for
electricity and staffing. So, a net income of about $150 per day.
On a typical “moderate” day, I sell about $150 in smoothies per cart and it still costs about $100 for electricity
and staffing. So, a net income of about $50 per day.
On a typical “poor” day, I sell about $50 in smoothies per cart and it still costs about $100 for electricity and
staffing. So, a net loss of about $50 per day.
I will set up my decision table based on the above profit/losses per smoothie cart.
Awesome
Nutritional
Demand
Moderate
Nutritional
Demand
Poor
Nutritional
Demand
3 New Carts 450 150 -150
1 New Cart 150 50 -50
0 New Carts 0 0 0
5. I will choose to use the Optimistic and Criteria of Realism strategies.
The Optimistic (Maximax) decision is to build 3 new carts with a possibly payoff of $450 per day.
Maximax Decision Process
Awesome
Nutritional
Demand
Moderate
Nutritional
Demand
Poor
Nutritional
Demand
Alternative
value
3 New Carts 450 150 -150 450
1 New Cart 150 50 -50 150
0 New Carts 0 0 0 0
0
Maximax
450
For the Criteria of Realism (Hurwicz), I will use a coefficient of realism of α = 0.75. As a reminder, this means
that I will be 75% optimistic and 25% pessimistic – a compromise between the optimistic and pessimistic
strategies. The Criteria of Realism decision is still to build 3 new carts with a possibly payoff of $300.00 per
day.
Hurwicz Criteria Decision Process
= 0.75
Awesome
Nutritional
Demand
Moderate
Nutritional
Demand
Poor
Nutritional
Demand
Alternative
value
3 New Carts 450 150 -150 300
1 New Cart 150 50 -50 100
0 New Carts 0 0 0 0
0
Hurwicz
Criteria
300
Now, I will use the above computations as a basis for composing my reflective essay. Please remember that
your reflective essay should include an introduction, body, and conclusion, and of course APA formatted
references.
The post You are a business owner faced with an important decision that could potentially be very lucrative. Keep in mind the “Six Steps in Decision Making” as you set up your decision analysi appeared first on Versed Writers.
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