The Political Situation of Belarus and the Influence of the EU sanctions on it

The Political Situation of Belarus and the Influence of the EU sanctions on it

Jip Determann 140091100
1-9-2014

The political situation of Belarus and the influence of the EU sanctions on it

1. Introduction

Belarus; the last dictatorship of Europe. Since the first election after the collapse of the Soviet Union reigned by Aleksandr Lukashenko. He has won every election since, every time with a great majority of the votes.

The last election, in 2010, Lukashenko won again with a sustainable 83 percent of the votes. On the for hand, human rights organizations, observers and the opposition accused the president of fraud. Many had their doubts with the election procedure. When the outcome again made Lukashenko win, 20.000 people gathered at the October square to protest against the election process. When they vainly tried to conquer the parliament House, they got brutally intervened. Seven candidates of the opposition, together with hundreds of other protesters got arrested.

Since 1994 the political situation in Belarus was always a reason of concern. But this situation clearly marked the human rights situation. This lead to sanctions from the EU to Belarus. 4 years later, Lukashenko is still the president. So did these sanctions had the desired outcome? Is the situation changed at all? With this research I want to give a better overview of the influence of EU sanctions. During this research we will get a better view of how the situation in Belarus was in 2010 and if/how it developed in the next years until now
2. Research Methods

2.1 How was the situation in 2010, and what about it made it necessary to give sanctions?
For this question I will use desk research. Because I need facts but also non numerical information I will use both quantitative as qualitative methods. I will search online and use sites of reliable organisations. But for this question I want to look mostly for blogs and newspaper articles because I want to gather this information from people who were there. I’ll make sure to look at the validity and reliability of the data.
2.2 What kinds of sanctions were given and what did they want to pull off with them?
For this question I will also use desk research. I will use quantitative methods and search the internet for articles and digital governmental documents from trustworthy sources and organisations to find the lists of the sanctions. I also want to use field research to get in touch with people who know a lot about human rights, and what will be even better, also in the links between human rights and sanctions.
2.3 How is the current situation, how much is it changed?
With this question I will also start with desk research and use quantitative methods to compare the facts and numbers with the information of 2010. After that I want to use more qualitative methods to try and get a view of how the citizens experience it, therefore I want to search online for articles and blogs which are published in the last year. I will again make sure that my sources are reliable, especially because it will be difficult to look if the information is not only based on opinions.
3. Results
Is the current political situation of Belarus influenced by the sanctions which were given by the EU in 2010?
3.1 How was the situation in 2010, and what about it made it necessary to give sanctions?

Belarus, by some known as the last dictatorship of the EU. Reigned by Loekasjenko, as the last dictator. Many organizations are concerned about the situation there. “During the Human Rights Council’s initial review of Belarus under the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) procedure in 2010, the government rejected recommendations to protect freedom of speech, association, and assembly, as well as to implement a moratorium on the death penalty.” Such as the clear example of the brutal intervention of the protest against the suspicion of fraud around the election on the October square on Sunday the 19th of December in 2010. “The human rights situation in Belarus has deteriorated drastically and was marked by flawed presidential elections in 2010 and an ensuing crackdown on peaceful protesters and opposition activists.” (Human Rights Watch, 2014) Hundred protestors got arrested, together with seven candidates from the opposition. Several members of the opposition got prisoned.
As mentioned above, Belarus is the only country who still uses the death penalty. In 2009 it looked like the country was showing small changes, probably because it wanted a membership at the Council of Europe, so it was adjusting to their standards. But just after the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe voted for the restoring of the so called “guest status” for Belarus (on condition that they didn’t use the death penalty) two individuals got executed.
(Human Rights Watch, 2014) (Willems, 2011) (OSCE, 2010)

3.2 What kind of sanctions were given and what did they want to pull off with them?

On the 19th of December, on the 31th of January 2011 the 28 foreign ministers from the EU decided to give sanctions to 156 of the senior figures from the Belarus government. They decided to freeze their asset and to give them travel restrictions. Because the country still did not started to show respect to human rights, democracy and the European legal system, in 2012 another 12 governors got on the sanctions list, which now had 200 names on it. “Given that EU expectations are minimal (freedom and rehabilitation for political prisoners as well as independence for Belarus), it seems as if there is no real (geopolitical) interest toward Belarus.” (Borowska, 2013)

This was not the first time that the sanctions from the EU to Belarus were taken. Earlier, in 1997 the EU chose to use mild sanctions. As in not approving the attempts of Lukashenko to negotiate the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the EU, and stopping with cooperation and giving support to the country. This was back then already because of the disapproval of the non-democracy and incumbent regime and lack of respect to human rights and the legal state Principe.
(de Trouw, 2012) (Willems, 2011) (Gaidelytė, 2011)

3.3 How is the current situation, how much is changed?

The human right wrote about the situation “The human rights situation in Belarus saw little improvement in 2013.” (Human Rights Watch, 2013) About the situation regarding political prisoners they wrote: “Eight political prisoners remain jailed. Those who have been released continue to face restrictions, ranging from travel limitations to inclusion in law enforcement agencies’ ‘watch lists’. Civil society groups cannot function freely. Belarusian courts sentenced two more people to death during 2013.”

The United Nations Human Rights Council appointed an UN expert in June 2012 to give report of the situation in Belarus, Haraszti. Williamson wrote about it on the Web Site of the Human Rights Watch “In his 2014 report, he said that human rights violations in Belarus remained “systemic” and of a “systematic nature” and that there had been a lack of positive change in the last 12 months” There was one human right defender released, but about that he said: “Bialiatski’s release is a positive step, but the reality is also that the laws and policies that lead to his detention are still in place, The Human Rights Council should extend the Belarus mandate until repressive provisions are amended and civil society and media are free to operate.” Thus Haraszti.

Another example, the background papers about the death penalty, published by the OSCE. According to the one about the period from 2009 till 2010, three individuals were executed in the covered period. The one that covers the period from 2013 till 2014, reports about two individuals who were sentenced to death. “During the reporting period, no changes were introduced in national legislation regulating the scope of application or execution of capital punishment in Belarus” (OSCE, 2010) (OSCE, 2014)

(Williamson, 2014)

4. Discussion/Analysis

Based on the finding, the situation in 2010 showed a great lack of respect to human rights and democracy. The election procedure was accused of fraud by many organizations and many had their doubts about the electoral integrity. Lukashenko’s regime, was nothing like the western way at all. Just as the death penalty, something no other EU country uses anymore. People who tried to speak their mind or show their disapproval were arrested or in some extreme situations even beaten up.

Because the EU did not approve this kind of methods, and wants Belarus, as mentioned before, to show more respect to human rights and democracy, they gave sanctions. Firstly to show their disapproval, with secondly hopefully ending to see changes in these fields. For instance, abolishment of the death penalty, and releasing the political prisoners. At first the asset of 156 of the senior figures from the Belarus government were frozen and they got travel restrictions. Later 12 goveners followed.

The current Belarus, still reign by Lukashenko, still uses the death penalty. Even the last year two individuals got sentenced to death. A few political prisoners got released, but there are also eight of them still in prison. The ones that did get released are on a watch list and in some cases got travel restrictions.
5. Conclusion

The current Belarus seems nothing different than the country which brutally intervened a peaceful protest back in 2010. Lukashenko is still reining the country with his strong regime. Which shows no democracy. The fact that shortly after the sanctions in 2011 some other governors followed because there was no change, makes it look like it didn’t make an big impression on the Belarusian Authorities. Although in the following years a few political prisoners were freed, a lot are still behind bars for doubtful reasons. The death penalty is still used, just like before. Human rights defenders keep being harassed. And there is no clear difference to be noticed in the overall situation. So the EU sanctions did not affect the current situation of Belarus.

6. Recommendations
Because based on my findings the sanctions didn’t had the desired effect, I want to refer to Rasa Gaidelytė. She is a Master Student in Public Administration at the Institute of Political Science and International Relations at Vilnius University. She wrote an article in 2010 about the link between EU sanctions and the repression in the country. She answers here questions on the basis of a theory from Reed M. Wood, a U.S. researcher of human rights and conflicts. She writes about this theory: “His empirical research of 157 cases has shown that economic sanctions not only rarely achieve its aims, but in some ways promote the repression employed by the authority of the sanctioned country; in particular, this effect is applicable to undemocratic regimes. Thus, although in recent decades economic sanctions have increasingly been used as impact tools to promote democratic reforms and respect for human rights, recent research has shown that sanctions often contribute to the opposite effect – political and civil rights become even more restrained in the relevant state. This in turn may lead to further tightening of the sanctions and thus pose a risk of falling into a vicious circle.”
In this article she explains why, based on Reed M. Wood’s theory, sanctions often have the opposite outcome. But she also said: “ When directed exclusively toward the ruling elite, sanctions weaken its power, while the opposition forces, to a certain extent, become more entrenched. If sanctions are broader, then the loss soon hurts the society. This is manifested by growing public dissatisfaction, and is expressed by protests and/or support of the opposition.” So based on that ground the sanctions I discussed in my research should have had an outcome.

7. Sources
Annotated Bibliography

Trial Monitoring in Belarus. 2011, November 10.
Warsaw; Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights.
This trial monitoring exercise was launched pursuant to an agreement between the authorities of the Republic of Belarus and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) which set out the modalities for ODIHR to monitor trials of individuals who were criminally charged in the aftermath of the events in central Minsk following the elections on the 19December 2010. This will help with giving a good view on why the EU found it necessary to give sanctions and help with sketching an image of the politic situation back then.
Nils Muižnieks (2013, February 12) Belarusian Human Rights Defenders Need Support. Retrieved
September 12, 2014, from the Web Site of the council of Europe:
http://www.coe.int/en/web/commissioner/-/belarusian-human-rights-defenders-need-suppo-1
This is a blog written by Nils Muižnieks, who is a commissioner of human rights. And he describes why Belarus is not a member state of the Council of Europe. He describes what they have to do, or don’t do to become a member state.
Paula Borowska (2013, July 1). Belarus reality check. Retrieved September 15, 2014, from Belarus
Digest Web Site:
http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-reality-check-2013-14567
This article is about a “reality check” in 2013 to see how much is really changed and what part the EU played in this. This will help with giving the answer to my last sub questions and help with making questions for my interview.
Geciteerde werken
Human Rights Watch. (2014, september 17). Human Rights Watch UPR Submission to UNHRC: Belarus. Opgehaald van Website van Human Rights Watch: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/09/17/human-rights-watch-upr-submission-unhrc-belarus
Willems, M. (2011, Januari 31). EU kiest voor ‘beledigende’ en ‘harde sancties’ tegen Wit-Rusland. Retrieved from Web Site of the NRC: http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2011/01/31/eu-kiest-voor-harde-sancties-tegen-wit-rusland/#
This article from the Dutch newspaper NRC gives a quick, simple, summary of the day that the EU decided to take sanctions in 2011. It will be useful for me to use, because it gives me the sanctions which were given and helps me answer my first and second question.
Marije Willems (2011, januari 31). Eu kiest voor ‘beledigende’ en ‘harde sancties’ tegen Wit-Rusland.
Retrieved September 16, 2014, from NRC Web Site:
http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2011/01/31/eu-kiest-voor-harde-sancties-tegen-wit-rusland/
Michel Krielaars (2011, January 31). Oppositie als wisselgeld.
NRC next
This article from the Dutch newspaper NRC next is about an interview with a political scientist Dzianis Melyantsou from the Belarusian Institution for Strategical Studies and Viktor Martinovitsj, writer and assistant editor of the leading newspaper Belgazeta. They describe the situation in Belarus around the election. I think it is a little bit bias, because they don’t seem so happy with Loekasjenko. But it does give a good view about the political regime.
Human Rights Watch. (2014, september 17). Human Rights Watch UPR Submission to UNHRC:
Belarus. Opgehaald van Website van Human Rights Watch: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/09/17/human-rights-watch-upr-submission-unhrc-belarus
Geciteerde werken
s

(Willems, 2011)
Geciteerde werken
de Trouw. (2012, maart 03). Meer EU-sancties tegen Wit-Rusland wegens schending mensenrechten. Retrieved from Web Site van de Trouw: http://www.trouw.nl/tr/nl/5009/Archief/archief/article/detail/3230535/2012/03/24/Meer-EU-sancties-tegen-Wit-Rusland-wegens-schending-mensenrechten.dhtml
Human Rights Watch. (2014, september 17). Human Rights Watch UPR Submission to UNHRC: Belarus. Opgehaald van Website van Human Rights Watch: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/09/17/human-rights-watch-upr-submission-unhrc-belarus
Willems, M. (2011, Januari 31). EU kiest voor ‘beledigende’ en ‘harde sancties’ tegen Wit-Rusland. Retrieved from Web Site of the NRC: http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2011/01/31/eu-kiest-voor-harde-sancties-tegen-wit-rusland/#
Works Cited
Geciteerde werken
Beichelt, T. (2014). Civil Society and Democracy Promotion. Palgrave Macmillan.

Borowska, P. (2013, July 1). Belarus Reality Check 2013. Retrieved from Web Site from Belarus Digest: http://belarusdigest.com/story/belarus-reality-check-2013-14567
de Trouw. (2012, maart 03). Meer EU-sancties tegen Wit-Rusland wegens schending mensenrechten. Retrieved from Web Site van de Trouw: http://www.trouw.nl/tr/nl/5009/Archief/archief/article/detail/3230535/2012/03/24/Meer-EU-sancties-tegen-Wit-Rusland-wegens-schending-mensenrechten.dhtml
Gaidelytė, R. (2011). The Link between the EU Sanctions and Repressions in Belarus. Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review, 41-80.
In this article Rasa Gaidelyté examines the relation between EU sanctions against Belarus and repression in the country on the basis of Reed M. Wood’s theory of economic sanction.This article doesn’t help for my research because it is before the period of my Research but it does give a good look about earlier situations
Human Rights Watch. (2013). Belarus. Retrieved from Web Site of HRW: http://www.hrw.org/europecentral-asia/belarus
This site gives a lot of information about Human Rights and has a lot of articles about Belarus
Human Rights Watch. (2014, september 17). Human Rights Watch UPR Submission to UNHRC: Belarus. Opgehaald van Website van Human Rights Watch: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/09/17/human-rights-watch-upr-submission-unhrc-belarus
Krielaars, M. (2011, Januari 31). Oppositie als wisselgeld. NRC next.
This article from the Dutch newspaper NRC next is about an interview with a political scientist Dzianis Melyantsou from the Belarusian Institution for Strategical Studies and Viktor Martinovitsj, writer and assistant editor of the leading newspaper Belgazeta. They describe the situation in Belarus around the election.
Muižnieks, N. (2013, 2 12). THE COMMISSIONER’S HUMAN RIGHTS COMMENTS: Belarusian Human Rights Defenders Need Support. Retrieved from Web Site of The Council of Europe: http://www.coe.int/en/web/commissioner/-/belarusian-human-rights-defenders-need-suppo-1
This is a blog written by Nils Muižnieks, who is a commissioner of human rights. And he describes why Belarus is not a member state of the Council of Europe. He describes what they have to do, or don’t do to become a member state.
Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights. (2011). Trial Monitoring in Belarus. Warsaw: OSCE.
This trial monitoring exercise was launched pursuant to an agreement between the authorities of the Republic of Belarus and the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) which set out the modalities for ODIHR to monitor trials of individuals who were criminally charged in the aftermath of the events in central Minsk following the elections on the 19December 2010. This
OSCE. (2010). The Death Penalty in the OSCE Area Background Paper 2010. Warsaw: OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
OSCE. (2014). The Death Penalty in the OSCE Area: Background Paper 2014. Warsaw: OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).
Slager, S. (2014, March 25). Rusland wint de Krim, maar verliest zijn bondgenoten. Retrieved from Web Site from “de Trouw”: http://www.trouw.nl/tr/nl/30340/Onrust-in-Oekraine/article/detail/3621652/2014/03/25/Rusland-wint-de-Krim-maar-verliest-zijn-bondgenoten.dhtml
White, S., & Mcallistera, I. (2014). Electoral Integrity and Support. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties.
This paper examines the causes and consequences of weak electoral integrity in Belarus, Russia, and the Ukraine. Using a series of opinion surveys conducted since 2000, we show that public perceptions of electoral unfairness have their roots in seeing widespread corruption among public officials.
Willems, M. (2011, Januari 31). EU kiest voor ‘beledigende’ en ‘harde sancties’ tegen Wit-Rusland. Retrieved from Web Site of the NRC: http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2011/01/31/eu-kiest-voor-harde-sancties-tegen-wit-rusland/#
This article from the Dutch newspaper NRC gives a quick, simple, summary of the day that the EU decided to take sanctions in 2011. It will be useful for me to use, because it gives me the sanctions which were given and helps me answer my first and second question.

Williamson, H. (2014, June 24). Belarus Human Rights Defender Freed. Retrieved from Web Site of Human Rights Watch: http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/06/23/belarus-human-rights-defender-freed
Zagorski, A. (2002). EU Policies Towards Russia, Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus. Geneva: Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP).

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