Risk Assessment Is The Health, Safety analysis

 

 

Risk Assessment is the health, safety and environmental management

Risk is the probability of gaining or losing value that if calculated by weighing the two against each other some risks can be predictable while others cannot. Most situations in life be it health, safety or environment are uncertain. The uncertain nature of risk gives need to develop risk evaluation methods. It is a sequential process from identifying the hazard to recording findings and implementing them.

Risk can be identified in a number of ways depending on the kind of situation one is in and the discipline to which it falls and can adopt a unique kind of method. In my research, I have looked into the methods of risk identification that are applicable in the health, safety and environmental issues.

Brainstorming is a method used across all disciplines to identify risk. Groups of professional come together and verbally identify the risks that are in their sectors (Covello, & Merkhofer, 1993 pg 89). In this method, all the people involved need to be informed and well equipped with the general knowledge so that they can appreciate the opinions of the others. Revelevant documentation is required after the brainstorming exercise so that the information can be stored for use in the evaluation exercise.

Interviews can also be used to identify risks that are bound to occur in a certain field of interest. Precaution should be taken on the kind of person interviewee since it affects the reliability of the kind of information that will be collected. It is normally advised that an interview be carried out after a brainstorming session to have appropriate questions to ask on the interview. However, interviews are limited to the capabilities of the facilitator and therefore he/she should be competent in carrying out interviews.

Experiments can be performed to identify a risk. In the health sector, experiments can be performed on animals that have reaction characteristic similar to those of humans. In the environment samples can be set aside, experiments performed on them, and the results of the experiments used to identify a risk.

Risks can be identified by reading documented knowledge. Researches done previously and knowledge from books and journal is an important source of information in risk identification. However the researcher should be cautious when using this knowledge to ensure that it is relevant and from a credible source. A lot of research has been done in the safety and health sector and the documented information could offer solutions in identifying risks. Documented historical knowledge that is widely accepted as a fact could be used in risk identification. In management of the environment, some facts like “planting of trees causes rainfall and clean air” are widely accepted in all parts of the world. The researcher can also use risk trigger questions. This is done by developing a list of situations where risks have previously occurred and that lead to risk identification. This method is efficient in the safety sector since the causes of accidents do not change easily.

Various methods of risk quantification exist and depending on the complexity or simplicity of the matter in question, a method is adopted. The health, safety and environment sector are not complex since most risks are recurrent and therefore simple methods of risk quantification can be adopted and relied upon to produce quality results. Increased pressure on quantitative risk assessment has led to development of more accurate results. The simplest way to assess a risk is by expert opinion. It is an important tool though often overlooked and is beneficial in cases where data is scarce. In the environment sector, less books and journals exist and quantification of risk could be asked from an expert. It is important to ask for information from a range of experts for quality outcome. A common approach of gathering expert’s information is by holding workshops to avoid biasness of information.

Normal distribution assumption  is  commonly  used tool for data quantification.. The mean and standard deviation of a particular factor under research such as addiction in the health sector are assumed to have a normal distribution. Calow, (1998,pg 47) ,says that Properties of normal distribution curves allow selection of confidence interval around the mean by taking multiples of the standard deviation. This method of data quantification assumes normal distribution that could not be the case all the time. However, the accuracy of this method ranges on an average of 76% and is therefore dependable.

The Extreme value theory is used for threshold that are excluded from the normal distribution curve.(Covello, & Merkhofer,1993 pg 89) It is mainly applicable to the safety sector where occurrence of an accident is not predictable and cannot occur on a fixed schedule. This theory assumes that the minor variations are insignificant and it focuses on prediction of the significant changes. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models are used in model formation (Covello, & Merkhofer, 1993 pg 90).

Monte Carlo simulation is complex sampling technique that’s solves complex differential equations. A probability density function can be used to explain evolution of a particular item by sampling its function. (Calow,1998,pg 47) This method applies with bacteria behavior studies in the health sector since it requires so many parameters. It is also used where experiments are being one on samples.

Simple quantifying methods can be used and accurate results obtained in these three topics. For a small manufacturing company use of simple methods that will each take consideration on practicality affordability and ease of doing would be advisable. Risk occurrence in environmental management can be assessed and by use of expert opinion. I would propose that the following table is used in quantification of data .It is assumed that the expert advice is used after a brainstorming exercise. The table below will be used in calculation of the chances of occurrence of the risk

 

 

QUESTION	EXPERT 1	EXPERT 2	EXPERT 3	AVERAGE COMMENT

For every question, the average will be found and answer given most experts will be considered the correct answer.

For a small manufacturing company, their research on health may not be extensive. The method of normal distributional will be effective since the products will be less and the likely hood of a recurring situation is expected. The following table may be used to evaluate results and predict the occurrence of a risk.

 

 

Product(x)	frequency	mean

By statistical methods, the above table can be used to generate variance. After getting the variance, standard variation is calculated after which the normal distribution arc is drawn. The curve would be used as a tool to estimate the occurrence of a risk

The safety issues in a manufacturing could be addressed using the extreme value theory. This method will require the company to have data on the safety risks that have occurred earlier in their field. It evaluated the magnitude of the risk by its deviation from the median. The following form is filled to enable calculation of the risk, and since it assumes normal distribution, the greater the value from zero either positive or negative will show the probability of the risk occurring

Safety issue	MEDIAN FROM PREVIOUS CASES (A)	MEDIAN OF RISK OCCURING CURRENTLY(B)	DEVIATION(A-B)
A
B
C

 

 

 

 

Bibliography

Calow, P. 1998. Handbook of environmental risk assessment and management. Oxford: Blackwell Science.

Covello, V. T., & Merkhofer, M. W. 1993. Risk assessment methods: Approaches for assessing health and environmental risks. New York: Plenum Press.

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