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1Read Chapter 9, “The Intelligence Agenda: Nation States,” in Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy text, on predicting the Soviet collapse.
2Read information from your Roskin text discussing “Project Solarium.”
3Read the article on “Project Solarium:” (See article in Course Documents).
http://www.eisenhowerinstitute.org/about/living_history/solarium_for_today.dot
4Read a contrasting view to the information in your intelligence text in the article, U.S. Intelligence Estimates of the Soviet Collapse: Reality and Perception by Bruce D. Berkowitz (Full text of article located in Course Documents).
http://novaonline.nvcc.edu/pls241/ELI_Article_Soviet_Collapse.pdf
5Read the article The CIA Vindicated: The Soviet Collapse Was Predicted, by Bruce D. Berkowitz and Jeffrey T. Richelson (in Course Documents).
http://novaonline.nvcc.edu/pls241/ELI_Article_CIA_Vindicated_Soviet_Collapse_Predicted.pdf
Write a one-page, double-spaced response to the following: Do you believe there was a gap between knowing that the Soviet Union had fundamental weaknesses and foreseeing its collapse, and should U.S. intelligence have done a better job predicting the outcome? Use information from your text and the articles to formulate your argument.
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