Project 2 mandates prompt the time series assessment for the Quebec Births data set. The student is given a data file that encompasses daily births from 01 January 1977 through 31 December 1989. Students are required to consider several time series models (see mandate instructions) and to derive the quantitatively best projection model for January 1990 births. The extent of the projection (1 to 31 days) will be determined by the chosen model. The madates provide the detail for the expectations of the analysis. Quebec Daily Births Analysis and Projections Use the Quebec birth data as the source for analyses Quebec birth data includes a date variable and a birth variable Quebec birth data starts on 01 January 1977 and ends on 31 December 1989 Add variables that will reflect the period month day of month and day of week for the data. A “quarterly” variable may also be considered for the data set Describe the quantitative characteristics of the dependent variable. Develop forecasting models for January 1990 Quebec births. The four major time series models must be developed. Naïve Moving average Define and defend the number of periods Exponential smoothing Define and defend the selected alpha value Time regression Seasonal models may be considered Seasonal naïve Seasonal time regression Determine the quantitatively best forecasting model The MAD statistic should be considered for forecasting accuracy Present each model graphically Observations and forecasts should be present on each graph Present relevant tables for quantitative definition MAD comparison and forecast value(s) Present the forecasting model (algorithm) for the selected model Explain the time parameters for the forecast Given the questions above: Develop a paper that contains the following modules: Problem/Objective Statement Questions and/or objectives Data Definition Methodology Solution Solution Interpretation Data Qualifiers Make sure each question is answered or objective is completed. Use tables graphs and narrative where appropriate. See grading rubrics Zoom Controls Below is the Excel information needed for the assignment most of this assignment requires Excel
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