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The actual demand for the patients at Omaha Emergency Medical
Clinic for the first six weeks are as follows:
WEEK
Actual number of patients
1
65
2
62
3
70
4
48
5
63
6
52
Clinic administrator Mark wants you to forecast patient demand
at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a
weighted moving average method to find this forecast. Your method
uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.333 on the
present period, 0.25 one period ago, 0.25 two periods ago, and
0.167 three periods ago.
a. Find forecasts using
three period moving average method and compute the MAD value.
b. Find forecasts using two
period weighted moving average with weights of 20 for the most
recent period and 10 the period before that. Compute the MAD
value.
c. Find forecasts using
Exponential smoothing method with a = 0.6. Use 60 as the initial
forecast. Compute the MAD value.
d. Find forecasts using
Trend projection and compute the MAD value.
e. Prepare a summary table
of the MAD values of each of the forecasting methods.
Hints:
MAD for (a) = 9.66667; (b) = 10; (c) = 8.00160; (d) =
5.13333
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